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Title: #NoEstimates Project Planning using Monte Carlo simulation
Proposer: Dimitar Bakardzhiev
Type: Tutorial
Duration: 90 mins
Description:
Clients come to us with an idea for a product and they always ask the questions - how long will it take and how much will it cost us to deliver? They need a delivery date and a budget estimate. In product development we break the project delivery into a batch (or batches) of work items. We are interested in how much time it will take for the batch to be processed by the development system. This talk is about planning a fixed bid projects, sprints, releases by applying Monte Carlo simulation using collected historical data about lead time per story. The method presented can be used by any team that uses user stories for planning and tracking project execution no matter the development process used (Scrum, XP, kanban systems).

Prerequisite Knowledge:
No prerequisite knowledge of statistics is required. Basic awareness of Agile and Lean concepts will improve the experience.

Learning Outcomes:
This session will give attendees practical techniques to apply Monte Carlo simulation on their own teams and projects when planning and executing fixed bid projects, sprints, releases.

Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/dimiterbak/noestimates-project-planning-using-monte-carlo-simulation

Video 1: http://youtu.be/GE9vrJ741WY

Video 2: http://youtu.be/r38a25ak4co

Presentation history: ALE2014; Lean Agile Scotland 2014

Scheduled Presentations: LeanKanban UK 2014; LeanKanban France 2014; Lean Kanban Day Istanbul 2014